Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 4:53 PM
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
If you told the average trader that today’s core CPI would come in at 2.6% vs 3.0% year over year, they would have expected a much bigger reaction than we saw today. Ironically, the size of the miss may be one of those reasons. It’s so far outside the realm of expected possibilities that traders immediately assumed the presence of legitimate issues with November’s data collection. Nonetheless, it was worth a moderate extension of the overnight rally.
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- Continued Claims (Dec)/06
- 1,897K vs 1930K f’cast, 1838K prev
- Jobless Claims (Dec)/13
- 224K vs 225K f’cast, 236K prev
- Philly Fed Business Index (Dec)
- -10.2 vs 3 f’cast, -1.7 prev
- Philly Fed Prices Paid (Dec)
- 43.60 vs — f’cast, 56.10 prev
- y/y CORE CPI (Nov)
- 2.6% vs 3% f’cast, 3.0% prev
- y/y Headline CPI (Nov)
- 2.7% vs 3.1% f’cast, 3.0% prev
- Continued Claims (Dec)/06
08:47 AM
Rallying after CPI data. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.115
12:18 PM
Off best levels. MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.127
02:56 PM
MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.117
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