Headline inflation rose 2.4% in September, up from a 1.9% enhance in August and above economists’ expectations, Statistics Canada reported this morning.
On a month-to-month foundation, the Shopper Worth Index edged up 0.1%.
The Financial institution of Canada’s most popular core measures—CPI-trim and CPI-median, which exclude unstable elements resembling meals and power—stood at 3.1% and three.2%, respectively. Each have been hotter than predicted, with CPI-median touchdown 0.2 proportion factors above the overall consensus.
“We have been all braced for a pop in headline to again above 2% on gasoline costs alone, however sadly meals inflation bought hungrier as nicely, with just a few different components of core additionally nudging into the image,” says BMO’s chief economist Douglas Porter.
Sticky inflation complicates the trail to a fee lower, however markets maintain agency
The sudden warmth on this morning’s inflation information is casting doubt on whether or not the Financial institution of Canada will lower charges per week from right this moment, and economists stay divided on the result.
Scotiabank’s Derek Holt famous {that a} higher-than-normal inflation studying would “current awkward optics for reducing,” he wrote previous to right this moment’s launch. He added that it’s uncommon for the central financial institution to scale back charges when the CPI-trim and CPI-median averages are operating within the 2.75% vary on a month-over-month, seasonally adjusted annualized foundation.
BMO’s Douglas Porter wasn’t absolutely anticipating one other fee lower in October, and famous that this morning’s information has strengthened that view.
“We have now been on the dovish aspect of the ledger, calling for the Financial institution to finally lower the in a single day fee to 2.0% (and probably decrease if commerce will get uglier), however weren’t satisfied that October would see one other lower,” he wrote. “Given right this moment’s setback for core, we’ll keep there for now.”
In distinction, TD’s Andrew Hencic stated the Financial institution of Canada “ought to nonetheless have room to ship one other lower,” citing the weak job market and fragile financial outlook as key drivers, together with present market positioning.
“Markets appear to agree, pricing the percentages of an October lower at 69%, only a contact beneath the 77% earlier than the discharge,” he wrote.
Following the discharge of the inflation information, Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose 2bps to 2.58% whereas the 10-year bond yield was largely unchanged at 3.01%.
Whereas some economists see room for one more fee lower subsequent week, in addition they anticipate it to be the final for some time. CIBC economist Andrew Grantham stated core inflation measures are “nearly subdued sufficient,” and the economic system “definitely weak sufficient,” to justify yet another 25-basis-point transfer.
“Nonetheless, after that the Financial institution is prone to transfer again onto the sidelines, partly resulting from proof of some lingering inflationary pressures, but in addition on the assumptions that financial development begins to get well and progress is made in direction of a commerce deal that reduces a few of the sector particular tariffs at present impacting Canadian commerce,” he famous.
View the most recent coverage fee forecasts from Canada’s main banks
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Final modified: October 21, 2025
