The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall far from the forecast, we tend to see moderate reactions. Odds increase when the headline breaks under the psychological […]
Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling Read More »
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to forecasts and headline inflation was unchanged from last month. All that to say that there was no major directional suggestion for rates in today’s data.
Mixed, But Modestly Stronger Reaction to CPI Read More »
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday’s close. Another 2bps of improvement followed this morning’s ADP employment data. ADP’s job count wasn’t particularly far below forecasts (41k vs 47k), but the previous month wasn’t
Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP Read More »
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger Mon, Dec 29 2025, 4:26 PM Uneventful And Slightly Stronger Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the late December bond market from exhibiting any unexpected signs of life. A stronger open in Europe made for a modest improvement overnight and almost all
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger Read More »
(Image credit: Getty Images) As 2025 winds down, many households find themselves pulled in many directions. Holiday gatherings, year-end work obligations and family commitments all compete for attention. In the midst of that chaos, financial to-dos often could slip to the bottom of the list. But the final stretch of the year can be one
Financial To-Dos to Finish 2025 Strong and Start 2026 Stronger Read More »
10yr yields are almost 4bps lower in early trading and the ADP employment report came in at -32k vs a +10k forecast. The logical conclusion would be that the data is responsible for the rally, but there was actually a remarkably light reaction to the data, both in terms of volume and volatility. Most of
Stronger Start, Mostly Before ADP Data Read More »
This PC Maker's Stock Is Soaring on a Stronger Outlook, Thanks to AI
This PC Maker's Stock Is Soaring on a Stronger Outlook, Thanks to AI Read More »
Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading. The culprit: both of this morning’s 8:30am ET economic releases. Jobless Claims data is probably the bigger deal as it continues to show no signs of labor market distress (216k vs 225k f’cast).
Stronger Data. Weaker Start For Bonds Read More »
It was a pretty straightforward overnight session with a very high degree of correlation between bond yields and stock prices. The final leg of the rally arrived on comments from NY Fed Pres Williams who said he sees room for a December cut. As a reminder, apart from Powell, Williams is the most important voice
Modestly Stronger With Bonds Tracking Stock Losses Read More »
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had done more than half of their overnight selling by 7am, and stocks are one of the only scapegoats. In other words, a “flight to safety” (sell stocks/buy bonds) seems to be
Stronger Start After 7am Magical Mystery Move Read More »